13th March 2011
EU Positioning to Gain Greater Influence in Arab Nations
Mark Hanson
The European Union is positioning itself to take on greater responsibility over the interests and needs of the North Africa region.
Whilst David Cameron’s calls for mentioning a no-fly zone specifically in the communiqué following the Emergency EU summit of March 11th were rebuffed by the majority of European leaders, the European Council Declaration does include a specific commitment to play an increased and increasing role in North Africa and throughout the region.
Emphasising that it must be a people-led transformation of North Africa, the Declaration states:
“Democratic uprisings are bringing dramatic changes to the Southern Neighbourhood, creating a new hope and opportunity to build a future based on democracy, pluralism, the rule of law, human rights, and social justice. Progress and democracy go hand in hand. The European Council salutes the courage demonstrated by the people of the region and reaffirms that it is for them to decide their future through peaceful and democratic means.”
There have been many calls in recent weeks for the European Union to offer a “carrot-and-stick” approach to responding to the popular uprisings in the Arab world, especially North Africa.
On February 18th, Michael Elliott wrote in Time magazine that for revolutions to succeed, they must be “welcomed into international clubs”. He draws parallels with the emergence of Eastern European nations and the subsequent welcoming of states such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania into the European Union.
Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister of the UK, makes a similar comparison in a speech he made on the 2nd March:
“A similar movement of change swept across central and eastern Europe in the 1990s. The European Community responded to that opportunity in magnificent fashion. By offering a path to re-joining the European family, the European community ensured the entrenchment of liberal democracy across a swathe of our continent. When it comes to North Africa, there is no certainty about the outcome.”
Yet, it would seem, EU leaders are considering the long-term, even if the words are not explicit. Whilst confirming the humanitarian and political needs in the short- and medium-term, the EU is also eyeing further expansion.
The focus on nations such as those in Eastern Europe, and also Turkey which has begun the long, arduous path to full EU membership, indicates that the Union is radically re-considering whether, should the efforts to promote the EU principles and democratic values be successful, North Africa could be welcomed into the EU as full members. Such talk would, no doubt, be strongly denied at present, yet in the same speech Clegg notes:
“I would like to very warmly welcome President Barroso’s call this morning for a ‘pact for democracy and shared prosperity’. I especially welcome his insistence that we must have greater conditionality in our approach and much greater political and economic openness towards North Africa.”
The final Declaration coming out from the EU Summit also indicates that Europe’s ambitions are wider:
“All countries in the region need to undertake or accelerate political and economic reforms. The European Union will support all steps towards democratic transformation, political systems that allow for peaceful change, growth and prosperity, and a more proportionate distribution of the benefits of economic performance.....Progress by partners towards transformation will drive EU support. Developing strong democratic institutions being one of the key objectives, increased parliamentary links between Europe and the region are of paramount importance.” - (Emphasis added.)
Whilst, of course, the driving initial focus is to act in a manner which enables European intervention that is welcomed by the new power structures of North Africa, as always with Europe there is much that lies behind the scenes.
